The stock market hitting new highs can be a cause for celebration, but it can also trigger anxieties for investors. This common question arises: “Should I wait for a pullback before investing?”

While inflation holds significant importance within the Fed’s dual mandate, which prioritizes maximum employment and price stability, it does not stand alone in the Fed’s considerations. The Federal Reserve also monitors four other crucial economic sectors that provide valuable insights into the economy’s overall well-being and may impact the timing of monetary policy adjustments.

The U.S. Central Bank’s Federal Open Market Committee elected to skip a rate hike at its meeting this week, in light of recent data indicating that both the labor market and inflation are slowing down. However, that doesn’t mean a rate hike is off the table for July.

The first quarter of 2023 was marked by resilience in global stocks and intermediate-term bonds. However, the quarter was anything but calm, with inflation, Fed rate hikes, and unexpected bank failures all contributing to elevated uncertainty.

The Fed took center stage this week with its FOMC meeting, where committee members announced a 25-bps rate hike in their latest policy decision. What’s intriguing is the swift shift in the narrative on what the Fed might or might not do.

Turning the page to 2023, it’s the land of the unknown. It’s fair to ask: “Will things get better?” In response, one could say — it’s hard to imagine there’s much left that can surprise the markets.

On January 19th, the U.S. hit its debt ceiling at a staggering $31.4 trillion. Raising the debt ceiling requires Congress to set a new limit. It appears we may be on track for heated discussions surrounding the debt ceiling this year.

Long-term, globally diversified investors willing to tolerate short-term volatility in the pursuit of long-term returns can seem rare. This was especially the case last year. Over time, however, we believe the benefits of adopting this mindset can be enormous.

Normally, an inflation reading of 7.7% is not good news. But things have not been normal for some time. Reported inflation for October was 7.7%, and in a backward way, that turned into the best news of the year. The S&P 500 was up 5.5% that day, which was its best one-day return of the entire year. It doesn’t take much good news for market returns to improve when the lows have been baked in.

The combination of undervaluation, underappreciation, and a potentially heightened period of demand could create an environment where “the old economy” is here to stay.

Inflation continues to be a nuisance and remains the biggest worry among investors. Headline inflation is the highest in 40 years and the Fed has indicated they will do “whatever it takes” to bring inflation down. All this and more in this quarter’s edition of MarketWise!

Second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came out on July 28th declining 0.9%, the second straight quarterly decline. The “Are we in a recession or not?” talk turned business TV into a sports debate show. There are convincing arguments on both sides.